In this past month of May, the sales were 43.7% lower than May 2019 and 54.4% below the 10-year May sales average. Despite the anemic sales, the prices have not moved much. For detached homes the benchmark price went up 0.3% from the previous month and still up 2.9% from May 2019. For apartment homes, the benchmark price went down 0.3% from the previous month but still up 3% from May 2019. For attached homes, the benchmark price went up 0.2% from the previous month and up 1.8% from May 2019.
The inventory is 32.4% lower than a year ago and that might explain part of the price stability. The sales-to-active listings ratio are still healthy. It is 13.5% for detached homes, 18.9% for townhomes and 14.8% for apartments. Ratios between 12% and 20% is considered balanced.
There have been many predictions or estimates of where real estate prices are headed in the next 12 months. The Canada Housing and Mortgage Corp (CMHC) made the biggest headline by predicting a 9 to 18% drop. Note it is a range based on their best and worse case scenarios. It is much better represented by the graph below. Other forecasts are also down but by a lesser degree. This include Scotiabank at 4%, CIBC 5 to 10%, RBC 7%, BMO 5% and Re/Max 5%.
I think the large drops will come later in the year. In the mean time, stay safe. And a Happy Father’s Day to all the fathers out there.
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